Announcement
Starting on July 4, 2018 the Indonesian Publication Index (IPI) has been acquired by the Ministry of Research Technology and Higher Education (RISTEKDIKTI) called GARUDA Garba Rujukan Digital (http://garuda.ristekdikti.go.id)
For further information email to portalgaruda@gmail.com

Thank you
Logo IPI  
Journal > Jurnal Gaussian > PEMODELAN MARKOV SWITCHING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (MSVAR)

 

Full Text PDF (639 kb)
Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Wisuda Periode Agustus 2014
PEMODELAN MARKOV SWITCHING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (MSVAR)
Article Info   ABSTRACT
Published date:
07 Aug 2014
 
Economic and financial variables are variables that are fluctuated because of regime switching as a result of political and economical conditions. Linear modeling can not capture the regime switching, so it is better to use Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Models (MSVAR). MSVAR is a combination of vector autoregressive models and hidden markov models. Daily return of Rupiah buying rate against the USD and Euro are economic variables that are fluctuated and they can explain economic condition of a country. The best model of five order iteration is MS (2) - VAR (4) with the smallest AIC value, that is -1460.48.  Maximum Likelihood Estimation is a method to get parameters estimation. With 73 data, the return rates has transition probability 0.08 from crisis to normal state, while the transisition probablity of the opposite condition is 0.6. Expected value being at normal state is 13.10 days and being at crisis state is 1,68 days.
Copyrights © 2014