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Journal > Jurnal Teknik Industri > Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing

 

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Jurnal Teknik Industri
Vol 17, No 2 (2015): DECEMBER 2015
Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing
Hartono, Budi ( Industrial Engineering Program, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Grafika no. 2. Jogjakarta)
Ayuningtyas, Riesa ( Industrial Engineering Program, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Grafika no. 2. Jogjakarta)
Mulyani, Yun Prihantina ( Industrial Engineering Program, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Grafika no. 2. Jogjakarta)
Article Info   ABSTRACT
Published date:
16 Dec 2015
 
During project implementation, risk becomes an integral part of project monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of risk in project progress monitoring is needed. The objective of this study is to develop a general framework that addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register (RR), Bayesian Network (BN), and Project Time Networks (PTN) for dynamic project monitoring. RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential development project is chosen as a working example and the result shows that the proposed framework has been successfully applied. The specific model of the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor the project progress. It is shown in this study that the proposed BN-based model provides superior performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.
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