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Journal > Jurnal Penelitian Tanaman Industri > PRAKIRAAN HARGA AKARWANGI: APLIKASI METODE JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN

 

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Jurnal Penelitian Tanaman Industri
PRAKIRAAN HARGA AKARWANGI: APLIKASI METODE JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN
INDRAWANTO, CHANDRA ( Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Perkebunan)
ERIYATNO, ERIYATNO ( Departemen Teknologi Industri Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian-IPB)
M. FAUZI, ANAS ( Departemen Teknologi Industri Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian-IPB)
MACHFUD, MACHFUD ( Departemen Teknologi Industri Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian-IPB)
SUKARDI, SUKARDI ( Departemen Teknologi Industri Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian-IPB)
SOETRISNO, NOER ( Kementerian Perumahan Rakyat)
Article Info   ABSTRACT
Published date:
18 Mar 2007
 
ABSTRAKPrakiraan harga terna akarwangi dan harga minyak akarwangi telahdilakukan dengan menggunakan metode jaringan syaraf tiruan. Memakaidata harga dari Januari 2000 sampai Agustus 2006 dilakukan prakiraanharga untuk 24 bulan kedepan. Prakiraan terbaik dengan Mse pelatihandan Mse testing yang rendah didapat pada kombinasi fungsi aktivasi layartersembunyi sigmoid biner dan fungsi aktivasi output sigmoid bipolardengan rentang data transformasi (0,1) untuk prakiraan harga ternaakarwangi. Sedangkan untuk prakiraan harga minyak akarwangi didapatpada fungsi aktivasi layar tersembunyi sigmoid bipolar dan fungsi aktivasioutput sigmoid biner dengan rentang data (0,1). Hasil prakiraan hargamenunjukkan harga rata-rata terna akarwangi dan harga rata-rata minyakakarwangi untuk tahun 2007 dan 2008 masih di atas harga titik impasusahatani maupun usaha agroindustri minyak akarwangi.Kata kunci : Akarwangi, Vetiveria zizanioides L., harga, prakiraan,jaringan syaraf tiruan, Jawa BaratABSTRACTVetiver oil prices forecasting with artificial neuralnetwork methodVetiver and vetiver oil prices forecasting with artificial neuralnetwork method has been done. Time series data from January 2000 toAugust 2006 was used to forecast the prices for 24 months ahead. The bestresult for forecasting of vetiver prices was gotten using sigmoid binaryactivation in hidden layer, sigmoid bipolar activation in output layer andtransformation data spread (0,1). The best result for forecasting of vetiveroil prices was gotten using sigmoid bipolar activation in hidden layer,sigmoid binary activation in output layer and transformation data spread(0,1). The result shows that the average forecasting prices of vetiver andvetiver oil in 2007 and 2008 higher than the prices needed for vetiverfarming and vetiver oil agroindustry to reach break event point.Key words: Vetiveria zizanioides L., prices, forecasting, artificial neuralnetwork, West Jav
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